ARM Holdings LLC

February 28th (Short month)

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Sun, 28 Feb 2010 23:50:00 +0000

These would be the returns thus far after fees.

There are still a lot of opportunities out there that are ridiculously undervalued. Good news is that the deal-flow of opportunities across my desk is probably only going to increase from here into the next year.

I intend to turn most of them down, but if I can find things that I can't justify not owning, I'm going to go ahead and put money where my mouth is.

As always, I'll continue to focus on not losing your money.

January, Finally, a DOWN month

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Sat, 30 Jan 2010 10:44:00 +0000

There's a lot I could say about the last month, but there are several sayings that wrap together a lot of my sentiment. They go something to the tune of, when things are getting better, you tend to overlook shortcomings. Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity.

Going forward, doing nothing is still an option that I feel will not lose my partners' money. That said, I think that I can take advantage of the inherent volatility of the securities that I tend to invest in a lot better. This would result in less risk for my investors and that's what i intend to do.

What good is the past if you're not willing to use it to guide your future?

I reserve the right for these numbers to be wrong as well, as E*Trade doesn't issue the 1099's till tomorrow... so, the correct ones should be in the February post.

Closing 2009 (Dec 31)

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Fri, 01 Jan 2010 05:52:00 +0000

Hey, I'm sitting in Cairo Egypt. Sorry if I missed any of your calls. It's pretty crazy out here. Anyway, this is what is you get after I take 20%.

I do want to say that I reserve the right to be wrong on these numbers, as they are year ending and I'm going to have an accountant verify them to close out the year but am pretty sure that they are correct. Part of this reserve is the fact that I'm mildly disorientated because I'm in another country I suppose.

I'll do my best to continue to not lose your money, as always.

Glen

November 30th Results

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 22:25:00 +0000

November results actually aren't as bad as I thought they'd be. This was definitely the craziest month so far in terms of bad surprises.

GS Update

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 02:06:00 +0000

After I take 20%.

September 30th Tracker

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 22:33:00 +0000

These results are after I take my 20%. This may be the last time I post monthly results as I don't want to disappoint people if GSI outperforms GSII or vice versa going forward. I need to think about it and ask both sets of LPs.

Glen is NOT a financial advisor. This is NOT an advertisement. Results may vary.

GS Status August 30th, 2009

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 22:02:00 +0000

What you see is after I take my 20% cut by the way. Over 80% of these gains are unrealized to protect my investors from higher income taxes. I diversify across the best companies I can find and wait patiently for other people to realize how great they actually are --- that's all there is to it.

GS Status

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 03:04:00 +0000

My Sentiment

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 03:45:00 +0000

My sentiment:

I’m very cautious at the moment. I’m not supremely bullish. I think that the reinflation trade is waning (oil, gold, dryshippers --- I wouldn’t expect 100% gains in a week or a month anymore). Timing when you buy is very important. We could see lots of market downside in the next 6 months. We could be in the eye of the hurricane of the mortgage mess. Cramer is calling for a housing bottom. I’m just very very cautious because I think that he’s right or the battle hasn’t even started. Consumer confidence is up, and mutual fund flows are positive. Drying up liquidity here in the US would impact the entire world. There is still very easy long term hold money to be made by buying fundamentally undervalued companies with positive catalysts such as uplisting, factories coming online, etc. That is what I plan to capitalize on. Still waiting on E-Trade.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/ShQKBEyAORI/AAAAAAAAFTM/03RNGrH9sEA/s1600-h/CreditSuisseResetMarch09.jpg

Mid 2011 is when all of these loans surface and get worked through. Could all this mess be priced into the market? I think it used to be. Now, I’m questioning the validity of the US rally. I still think there are a lot of companies selling cheaper than they should be. But, there are a lot that are becoming overpriced and we aren’t out of the woods…. And I think we could slide back in. Remember, you aren’t playing the actual worth of the companies, you are playing the public’s perception of the worth of the companies and if numbers start looking bad and CNBC starts being obnoxious, things could go down. All the bank dilution and uncertainty will prevent them from soaring back to previous highs, but I still think financials are cheap as a whole. Plus, there is still a lot of dumb money on the sidelines. But, it could easily be smart money if we start crashing. But, in my opinion, this dumb money supports a thesis for the bottom of the housing +-10% of current home prices. When there is a lot of money, it doesn’t sit around for long especially when I see eminent inflation. People buy stuff. I’ve replayed and retalked myself through the possible scenarios. This is what I’ve come up with as far as a general outlook:

Short the dollar
Short US Treasuries
Long China
Mixed Oil, Gold, and commodities, but long term bullish oil
Long global markets? Not so sure. Be picky about which ones you go long at this point.

It's not where you are right that counts, it's the ability to be less frequently wrong than everyone else.

Glen

Getting Off The Ground

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Thu, 28 May 2009 02:53:00 +0000

This is blog post one! This is the informal blog to keep members of funds managed by ARM Holdings LLC through Limited Partnerships such as Global Speculation informed about what's going on with their money.

Status Check::::::

Partnership Agreements: Check
Website: Check
ARM Holdings LLC Registration: Check
Global Speculation L.P. Registration: Check
ARM Holdings LLC Bank Account Setup: Check
E-Trade Account Set up: To Be Completed
Don't Lose Money: To Be Completed (I Hope).